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Copernicus EU

An unprecedented fire season in Canada that began in May is set to roll into October still going strong. About 44 million acres (18 million hectares)  have burned this year as 2023 continues its journey deep off the charts when it comes to areas scorched across the nation.

Large fires in the west engulfed hundreds of thousands of acres of forest over recent days as a strong area of low pressure offshore helped crank up winds in the drought-afflicted region. Mixed fire weather signals ahead include wind and some rain for British Columbia and Alberta, a building heat dome in the country’s center and a descent into the coming cold season.

In a typical year, the fire season would be ending or finished by this point. But it may take winter snows to finally smother the longest-lived blazes.

Dangerous fire behavior increased over the weekend in parts of British Columbia and Alberta as the region found itself squeezed between strong low pressure offshore and unseasonable high pressure over the country’s north-central region. The combination helped increase wind speeds in the area, leading to rapid fire growth and new ejections of thick smoke.

European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-2

Yellowknife — the territorial capital of the Northwest Territories — was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/17/canada-wildfires-yellowknife-evacuation/">fully evacuated just over a month ago</a> and residents returned home this month. On Saturday, the city again found itself menaced by nearby fires, this time by thick smoke that turned skies dark orange.

“Tiny shards of ash fluttered to the surface of dimly apocalyptic streets,” <a href="https://cabinradio.ca/154265/news/yellowknife/yellowknife-awakens-to-grossest-morning-in-city-history/">wrote Cabin Radio</a>, a local news source for Yellowknife. “By 10am, the sky outside remained remarkably and eerily dark.”

A<a href="https://www.yellowknife.ca/en/news/welcome-home-gathering.aspx"> festival hosted by the city </a>was canceled due to the poor air quality. Monday’s<a href="https://cabinradio.ca/154409/news/yellowknife/enjoy-a-smoke-free-monday-yk-because-its-back-on-tuesday/"> air quality was expected to be much improved</a>, a rarity in recent weeks, although the improvement was not expected to last.

Large fires continue to burn in eight of Canada’s provinces, nearly from coast-to-coast.

British Columbia is seeing the most widespread fire activity, with <a href="https://wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/map">several hundred ongoing</a> in that province, including about a dozen major fires that have burned more than 750,000 acres and are still out of control. Nearly 100 fires also remain active in <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8d86d267dcf44ad085a11939186f3d3a">Alberta</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.nt.ca/ecc/en/services/wildland-fire-update/nwt-live-fire-map">Northwest Territories</a>, as well as lesser but still numerous fires in <a href="https://www.saskpublicsafety.ca/emergencies-and-response/wildfire-status">Saskatchewan</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.mb.ca/conservation_fire/Fire-Maps/fireview/fireview.html">Manitoba</a> and elsewhere.

As of Sept. 20, at least 43,434,691 acres (17,577,396 hectares) had burned across Canada this year, which is an <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.htm">area about the size</a> of Missouri. With the spike in wildfire intensity in recent days, it is likely that several hundred-thousand additional acres have gone up in smoke.

This year is about 25 million acres ahead of the previous high mark in <a href="https://ciffc.net/statistics">modern records</a> kept by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Before 2023, the most land burned was 17.5 million acres (7.1 million hectares) in 1995.

It also compares to an annual average of 5.2 million acres (2.1 million hectares) blackened. In other words, this season is about 8.5 times what might usually be expected.

Wildfire season in Canada is typically <a href="https://www.gov.nt.ca/ecc/en/services/wildfire-operations">expected to last</a> from May to September. In most years, the focus is from June through August. Many wildfire seasons also feature a regional bend, whereas this year, large fires have occurred across the country.

Canada has seen temperatures increase more rapidly than much of the globe as the Earth warms.

Warming lengthens the amount of time that biomass is available to burn and increases growth time for flora, among other factors. Persistent <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor">high pressure and drought</a> have also overtaken much of the country this year, probably enhanced by the onset of El Niño, a warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters that impacts global weather patterns.

Smoke outbreaks into the United States were numerous this summer. A persistent weather pattern that featured near-weekly cold fronts out of Canada helped steer the bad air stateside. It becomes more complicated as the cool season jet stream strengthens, exerting control and dislodging weather regimes more readily.

For now, the same weather pattern that enhanced flames over the weekend is mainly keeping smoke well to the north of the Lower 48.

Plumes have instead headed northward from their source, driven by the interaction between low pressure offshore and high pressure to the east of the fires. In the near future, the thickest smoke will move toward remote northern Canada and Baffin Bay.

Some of the smoke may drift southward on the east side of high pressure, potentially approaching the northeast United States in limited fashion over the coming days.

Over the recent days, extremely warm temperatures have been ongoing in the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, plus northern Manitoba and Ontario in particular. Temperatures <a href="https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1705757966928851087">at or near record values</a> for the date reached the upper 70s and lower 80s just south of the Arctic Circle.

An autumn heat wave will overtake much of the central and eastern portion of the country over the coming days, then perhaps lasting through next week.

Wetter and cooler conditions in the country’s west should last into mid- or late week. The heaviest rain, in some cases probably fire-crushing, will be relegated to the west and south portions of British Columbia.

The warmest conditions compared to normal will again target the country’s north-central region Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures as high as 20 degrees or more above normal target northern Manitoba and the western shores of Hudson Bay as highs reach the 70s to near 80. Temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal shift slowly eastward through late in the week and the weekend.

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.

Ian Livingston

Canada’s unprecedented fire season burns on into fall

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